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2010 Senate · FL

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 773 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 21% · Republican 47%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 20.20% · Republican 48.90%

R+28.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 21 − 47 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 20.198 − 48.895 = -28.697
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-28.697) = 2.697
  4. Absolute miss = |2.697| = 2.697

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 1066, race ID 1514 (538 database).