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2010 Senate · NH

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2010-10-28 (5 days before the election) · 1,308 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 56%

R+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.85% · Republican 60.09%

R+23.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 56 = -15.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.847 − 60.086 = -23.239
  3. Signed miss = -15.00 − (-23.239) = 8.240
  4. Absolute miss = |8.240| = 8.240

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 1075, race ID 1529 (538 database).