2000 Senate · CA
Los Angeles Times · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 852 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 35%
D+25.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.84% · Republican 36.59%
D+19.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 35 = 25.00
- Actual margin = 55.843 − 36.587 = 19.256
- Signed miss = 25.00 − (19.256) = 5.744
- Absolute miss = |5.744| = 5.744
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 12771, race ID 1684 (538 database).