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2008 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2008-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 886 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47% · Republican 43.3%

D+3.7

The certified result

Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47 − 43.3 = 3.70
  2. Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
  3. Signed miss = 3.70 − (7.400) = -3.700
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.700| = 3.700

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15611, race ID 38 (538 database).