Skip to content

2008 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2008-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 981 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 47.5% · Republican 42.8%

D+4.7

The certified result

Democrat 52.76% · Republican 45.36%

D+7.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 47.5 − 42.8 = 4.70
  2. Actual margin = 52.760 − 45.360 = 7.400
  3. Signed miss = 4.70 − (7.400) = -2.700
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.700| = 2.700

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 15621, race ID 38 (538 database).