2008 President · WV
American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2008-11-02 (2 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 53%
R+11.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.59% · Republican 55.71%
R+13.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 53 = -11.00
- Actual margin = 42.590 − 55.710 = -13.120
- Signed miss = -11.00 − (-13.120) = 2.121
- Absolute miss = |2.121| = 2.121
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16392, race ID 753 (538 database).