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2008 Senate · MT

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 2,734 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 71% · Republican 26%

D+45.0

The certified result

Democrat 72.92% · Republican 27.08%

D+45.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 71 − 26 = 45.00
  2. Actual margin = 72.916 − 27.084 = 45.832
  3. Signed miss = 45.00 − (45.832) = -0.832
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.832| = 0.832

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16416, race ID 1564 (538 database).