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2008 Governor · IN

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 2,634 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 60%

R+23.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.04% · Republican 57.84%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 60 = -23.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.036 − 57.841 = -17.805
  3. Signed miss = -23.00 − (-17.805) = -5.194
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.194| = 5.194

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16418, race ID 1314 (538 database).