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2008 President · VA

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 1,557 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 46%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.63% · Republican 46.33%

D+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.629 − 46.331 = 6.298
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (6.298) = -0.299
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.299| = 0.299

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16422, race ID 749 (538 database).