Skip to content

2008 Governor · WA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 663 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 46%

D+6.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.24% · Republican 46.76%

D+6.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 46 = 6.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.240 − 46.760 = 6.480
  3. Signed miss = 6.00 − (6.480) = -0.481
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.481| = 0.481

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16437, race ID 1321 (538 database).