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2008 Senate · GA

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-11-01 (3 days before the election) · 683 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 48%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.83% · Republican 49.76%

R+2.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 48 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.833 − 49.756 = -2.923
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (-2.923) = -1.076
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.076| = 1.076

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16438, race ID 1550 (538 database).