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2008 Senate · KS

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 499 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 32% · Republican 56%

R+24.0

The certified result

Democrat 36.46% · Republican 60.06%

R+23.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 32 − 56 = -24.00
  2. Actual margin = 36.458 − 60.058 = -23.600
  3. Signed miss = -24.00 − (-23.600) = -0.400
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.400| = 0.400

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16453, race ID 1555 (538 database).