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2008 President · VT

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 275 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 62% · Republican 32%

D+30.0

The certified result

Democrat 67.46% · Republican 30.45%

D+37.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 62 − 32 = 30.00
  2. Actual margin = 67.456 − 30.449 = 37.007
  3. Signed miss = 30.00 − (37.007) = -7.006
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.006| = 7.006

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16456, race ID 750 (538 database).