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2008 Senate · SD

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 352 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 35%

D+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.49% · Republican 37.51%

D+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 35 = 25.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.492 − 37.508 = 24.984
  3. Signed miss = 25.00 − (24.984) = 0.017
  4. Absolute miss = |0.017| = 0.017

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16459, race ID 1574 (538 database).