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2008 President · SD

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 352 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 52%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.75% · Republican 53.16%

R+8.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 52 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.747 − 53.159 = -8.412
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-8.412) = -0.588
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.588| = 0.588

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16459, race ID 745 (538 database).