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2008 Senate · ID

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 372 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 31% · Republican 56%

R+25.0

The certified result

Democrat 34.10% · Republican 57.65%

R+23.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 31 − 56 = -25.00
  2. Actual margin = 34.105 − 57.654 = -23.549
  3. Signed miss = -25.00 − (-23.549) = -1.451
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.451| = 1.451

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16462, race ID 1552 (538 database).