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2008 Senate · NM

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 457 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 33%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.33% · Republican 38.67%

D+22.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 33 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.328 − 38.672 = 22.656
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (22.656) = -1.656
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.656| = 1.656

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16465, race ID 1568 (538 database).