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2008 President · NM

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 457 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.78%

D+15.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.907 − 41.779 = 15.128
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (15.128) = -5.128
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.128| = 5.128

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16465, race ID 736 (538 database).