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2008 President · DE

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 346 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 59% · Republican 37%

D+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.94% · Republican 36.95%

D+25.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 59 − 37 = 22.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.943 − 36.947 = 24.996
  3. Signed miss = 22.00 − (24.996) = -2.996
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.996| = 2.996

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16466, race ID 712 (538 database).