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2008 President · RI

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 365 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 37%

D+21.0

The certified result

Democrat 62.87% · Republican 35.06%

D+27.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 37 = 21.00
  2. Actual margin = 62.870 − 35.061 = 27.809
  3. Signed miss = 21.00 − (27.809) = -6.809
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.809| = 6.809

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16471, race ID 743 (538 database).