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2008 Senate · CO

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 685 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 36%

D+15.0

The certified result

Democrat 52.80% · Republican 42.49%

D+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 36 = 15.00
  2. Actual margin = 52.796 − 42.492 = 10.304
  3. Signed miss = 15.00 − (10.304) = 4.696
  4. Absolute miss = |4.696| = 4.696

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16474, race ID 1548 (538 database).