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2008 Senate · WY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 246 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 25% · Republican 68%

R+43.0

The certified result

Democrat 24.26% · Republican 75.64%

R+51.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 25 − 68 = -43.00
  2. Actual margin = 24.258 − 75.635 = -51.377
  3. Signed miss = -43.00 − (-51.377) = 8.377
  4. Absolute miss = |8.377| = 8.377

The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16480, race ID 1579 (538 database).