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2008 Senate · WY

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 246 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 29% · Republican 63%

R+34.0

The certified result

Democrat 26.53% · Republican 73.36%

R+46.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 29 − 63 = -34.00
  2. Actual margin = 26.528 − 73.355 = -46.827
  3. Signed miss = -34.00 − (-46.827) = 12.827
  4. Absolute miss = |12.827| = 12.827

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.8 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16480, race ID 1580 (538 database).