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2008 Senate · TX

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 972 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 47%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.84% · Republican 54.82%

R+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 47 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.838 − 54.821 = -11.983
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-11.983) = -0.017
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.017| = 0.017

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16485, race ID 1576 (538 database).