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2008 President · WA

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 797 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 43%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.65% · Republican 40.48%

D+17.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 43 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.653 − 40.476 = 17.177
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (17.177) = -7.177
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.177| = 7.177

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16486, race ID 751 (538 database).