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2008 President · NV

YouGov · fieldwork ended 2008-10-25 (10 days before the election) · 494 respondents · Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 46%

D+5.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.15% · Republican 42.65%

D+12.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 46 = 5.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.147 − 42.654 = 12.493
  3. Signed miss = 5.00 − (12.493) = -7.493
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.493| = 7.493

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16497, race ID 737 (538 database).