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2008 President · AR

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 51%

R+7.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.87% · Republican 58.72%

R+19.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 51 = -7.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.865 − 58.716 = -19.851
  3. Signed miss = -7.00 − (-19.851) = 12.851
  4. Absolute miss = |12.851| = 12.851

The poll overstated the Democrat by 12.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16499, race ID 706 (538 database).