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2008 President · IN

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.95% · Republican 48.91%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.946 − 48.914 = 1.032
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (1.032) = -1.032
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.032| = 1.032

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16500, race ID 719 (538 database).