2008 President · NJ
Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 801 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 55% · Republican 34%
D+21.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.27% · Republican 41.70%
D+15.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 55 − 34 = 21.00
- Actual margin = 57.272 − 41.704 = 15.568
- Signed miss = 21.00 − (15.568) = 5.432
- Absolute miss = |5.432| = 5.432
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16504, race ID 735 (538 database).