2008 Senate · MN
Princeton Survey Research Associates International · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 933 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 38%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.99% · Republican 41.98%
even
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 38 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 41.994 − 41.983 = 0.011
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (0.011) = 3.989
- Absolute miss = |3.989| = 3.989
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16506, race ID 1561 (538 database).