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2008 Senate · NM

SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 664 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 56% · Republican 42%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.33% · Republican 38.67%

D+22.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 56 − 42 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.328 − 38.672 = 22.656
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (22.656) = -8.656
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.656| = 8.656

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16510, race ID 1568 (538 database).