2008 House · NM-1
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 43%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.65% · Republican 44.35%
D+11.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 43 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 55.654 − 44.346 = 11.308
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (11.308) = -7.309
- Absolute miss = |-7.309| = 7.309
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.3 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16512, race ID 4282 (538 database).