2008 House · NM-2
Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 41%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 55.96% · Republican 44.04%
D+11.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 41 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 55.958 − 44.042 = 11.916
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (11.916) = -7.916
- Absolute miss = |-7.916| = 7.916
The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16512, race ID 4283 (538 database).