Skip to content

2008 President · NM

Research & Polling Inc. · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,002 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.78%

D+15.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.907 − 41.779 = 15.128
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (15.128) = -7.128
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.128| = 7.128

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16512, race ID 736 (538 database).