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2008 President · MO

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.29% · Republican 49.43%

R+0.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.293 − 49.426 = -0.133
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (-0.133) = 0.133
  4. Absolute miss = |0.133| = 0.133

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16516, race ID 728 (538 database).