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2008 Governor · NH

American Research Group · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 68% · Republican 28%

D+40.0

The certified result

Democrat 70.18% · Republican 27.62%

D+42.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 68 − 28 = 40.00
  2. Actual margin = 70.181 − 27.624 = 42.557
  3. Signed miss = 40.00 − (42.557) = -2.557
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.557| = 2.557

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16517, race ID 1317 (538 database).