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2008 President · CO

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 2,023 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 44%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.66% · Republican 44.71%

D+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 44 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.660 − 44.708 = 8.952
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (8.952) = 1.047
  4. Absolute miss = |1.047| = 1.047

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16530, race ID 709 (538 database).