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2008 Senate · NM

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,537 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 39%

D+19.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.33% · Republican 38.67%

D+22.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 39 = 19.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.328 − 38.672 = 22.656
  3. Signed miss = 19.00 − (22.656) = -3.656
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.656| = 3.656

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16531, race ID 1568 (538 database).