Skip to content

2008 President · NM

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,537 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 58% · Republican 41%

D+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.91% · Republican 41.78%

D+15.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 58 − 41 = 17.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.907 − 41.779 = 15.128
  3. Signed miss = 17.00 − (15.128) = 1.872
  4. Absolute miss = |1.872| = 1.872

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16531, race ID 736 (538 database).