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2008 Senate · OR

Public Policy Polling · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 1,424 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 43%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.91% · Republican 45.55%

D+3.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 43 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.905 − 45.553 = 3.352
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (3.352) = 4.649
  4. Absolute miss = |4.649| = 4.649

The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16532, race ID 1571 (538 database).