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2008 President · PA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 47%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.49% · Republican 44.17%

D+10.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.486 − 44.167 = 10.319
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (10.319) = -6.318
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.318| = 6.318

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16536, race ID 742 (538 database).