2008 Senate · OR
SurveyUSA · fieldwork ended 2008-10-29 (6 days before the election) · 700 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.91% · Republican 45.55%
D+3.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 48.905 − 45.553 = 3.352
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (3.352) = 3.649
- Absolute miss = |3.649| = 3.649
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16542, race ID 1571 (538 database).