2008 President · NJ
Fairleigh Dickinson University · fieldwork ended 2008-10-26 (9 days before the election) · 852 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 35%
D+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 57.27% · Republican 41.70%
D+15.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 35 = 18.00
- Actual margin = 57.272 − 41.704 = 15.568
- Signed miss = 18.00 − (15.568) = 2.432
- Absolute miss = |2.432| = 2.432
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16550, race ID 735 (538 database).