Skip to content

2008 House · NV-2

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 37% · Republican 50%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.44% · Republican 51.82%

R+10.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 37 − 50 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.438 − 51.824 = -10.386
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-10.386) = -2.614
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.614| = 2.614

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16555, race ID 4265 (538 database).