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2008 President · NC

Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 625 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.70% · Republican 49.38%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.704 − 49.376 = 0.328
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (0.328) = -3.329
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.329| = 3.329

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16556, race ID 731 (538 database).