2008 Senate · KY
Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 817 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 47%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.03% · Republican 52.97%
R+5.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 47 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 47.034 − 52.966 = -5.932
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-5.932) = 0.931
- Absolute miss = |0.931| = 0.931
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16558, race ID 1556 (538 database).