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2008 President · IN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 49%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.95% · Republican 48.91%

D+1.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 49 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.946 − 48.914 = 1.032
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (1.032) = -4.032
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.032| = 4.032

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16561, race ID 719 (538 database).