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2008 House · NH-1

University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 308 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 41%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.76% · Republican 45.86%

D+5.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 41 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.760 − 45.864 = 5.896
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (5.896) = -2.896
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.896| = 2.896

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16574, race ID 4267 (538 database).