2008 House · NH-2
University of New Hampshire Survey Center · fieldwork ended 2008-10-28 (7 days before the election) · 303 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 26%
D+28.0
The certified result
Democrat 56.44% · Republican 41.42%
D+15.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 26 = 28.00
- Actual margin = 56.442 − 41.424 = 15.018
- Signed miss = 28.00 − (15.018) = 12.982
- Absolute miss = |12.982| = 12.982
The poll overstated the Democrat by 13.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16574, race ID 4268 (538 database).