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2008 Governor · IN

Selzer & Co. · fieldwork ended 2008-10-27 (8 days before the election) · 606 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 54%

R+18.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.04% · Republican 57.84%

R+17.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 54 = -18.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.036 − 57.841 = -17.805
  3. Signed miss = -18.00 − (-17.805) = -0.194
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.194| = 0.194

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16588, race ID 1314 (538 database).